Article 1
What should enterprises do to maintain the competitive advantage of the shrimp industry in the EU?
As of early 2026, the Indian shrimp industry has continuously received favorable trade signals: countervailing duties (CVD) to the U.S. have been adjusted downward, while a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the European Union (EU) has been reached, opening the prospect of eliminating nearly all seafood tariffs in the coming years. This shift not only helps Indian shrimp quickly offset the decline in the U.S. market but also reshapes the global competitive landscape, placing Vietnamese shrimp exporters under greater pressure regarding pricing, market share, and market strategy.
The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) noted that amidst the ongoing volatility in global seafood trade, the Indian shrimp industry recorded a year of impressive growth. India’s export structure shows that raw whiteleg shrimp remains the backbone, while black tiger shrimp saw a significant recovery in the second half of the year. This reflects India’s familiar strategy: prioritizing large volumes and competitive pricing to capture market share before moving toward deep processing. This approach allows enterprises the flexibility to pivot toward markets with high demand for bulk raw shrimp.
The EU and China have emerged as bright spots for India. The most significant turning point came on January 27th, 2026, when India and the EU finalized negotiations for an FTA, paving the way for tariff reductions on the majority of goods, including seafood. According to European importers, once the agreement takes effect, import duties on Indian shrimp could drop sharply, making their selling prices significantly more competitive than before, when tariffs were relatively high. This is expected to create a major advantage for Indian shrimp over competing sources such as Ecuador and Vietnam.
Although ratification will take time, the FTA has already provided a "market sentiment" boost, encouraging businesses to sign long-term contracts, invest in farming areas, and expand capacity for the EU market starting now. Parallel to the EU, U.S.-India trade relations have also shown positive signs as U.S. countervailing duties on Indian goods were reduced from 25% to approximately 18%. However, Indian shrimp still faces anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties, meaning actual costs have not decreased as sharply as expected. Consequently, while the U.S. may see a partial recovery in demand, it is unlikely to regain its position as an absolute dominant market. The EU will likely remain a strategic pillar for India in the coming years.
For Vietnam, India’s shifts create direct competitive pressure, especially in the EU—a market that has traditionally been a stronghold for Vietnam thanks to the EVFTA. If Indian shrimp enjoys equivalent or lower tariffs, their price advantage will become distinct due to large-scale farming and low production costs. In that scenario, the raw shrimp and commodity product segments in the EU will face fiercer competition.
However, Vietnam still maintains an edge in deep-processed groups, value-added products, high-quality standards, traceability, and sustainability. VASEP assesses that as India increases its presence in the EU and gradually recovers market share in the U.S. through new trade agreements, competing directly on price or volume will become increasingly difficult for Vietnamese shrimp enterprises.
The story of Indian shrimp in the 2025–2026 period demonstrates a rapid adaptability to policy fluctuations: losing advantage in one market but immediately pivoting to another, while leveraging FTAs to prepare for a new growth cycle. "For Vietnam's shrimp exports, this is both a challenge and a reminder to upgrade the growth model. In the coming period, the competitive advantage of the shrimp industry will no longer lie in scale or low cost, but in value addition, branding, and sustainable quality—the decisive factors for the long-term position of Vietnamese shrimp in the global market," VASEP evaluated.
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Nguồn: Diệu Linh
(https://congthuong.vn/doanh-nghiep-can-lam-gi-de-giu-loi-the-cua-nganh-tom-tai-eu-442540.html)
News 2
Agribank and “multi-purpose” banks struggle to rebalance funding
By Phan Linh — source: VnEconomy
In the first week of February, overnight VND interbank rates spiked to 17–20% per annum, forcing the regulator to inject liquidity and push outstanding pledged lending to a record high in order to calm markets. The episode — and the intense scramble among banks such as Agribank that combine policy mandates with commercial operations — reflects a build-up of structural pressures in the banking system, experts say.
Emergency interventions by the State Bank of Vietnam quickly eased the strain: by the afternoon of 9 February 2026, total outstanding on the pledged-loan window stood at VND 489,258.42 billion (around VND 489.3 trillion), and overnight rates had fallen to about 9%, with one-week, two-week and one-month tenors trading near 9.5% per annum.
Analysts argue that the recent interbank-rate volatility must be seen against a prolonged period of monetary easing designed to support the economy. Persistently low deposit rates over several years encouraged depositors to reallocate funds away from bank accounts and into assets such as gold, property and other investment channels. The result has been a widening gap between funding and lending: a portion of the financial resources has become locked in less liquid assets, reducing the money-multiplier effect and leaving latent, structural liquidity risk within the banking sector.
A banking industry specialist noted the immediate shock was amplified by seasonal factors. February in the Gregorian calendar coincides with the run-up to the Lunar New Year (Tết), when demand for cash and payment activity increases markedly, placing short-term pressure on system liquidity. At the same time, stronger Treasury inflows during the period shifted substantial funds from the corporate and banking sectors into state accounts, temporarily reducing available system liquidity.
Beyond seasonality and treasury flows, the sharp moves in interbank rates exposed longer-standing tensions arising from the growing divergence between deposit mobilisation and credit growth. In recent years, lending rates were lowered to support recovery and growth, dragging deposit rates down with them. Against a backdrop of repeated macro shocks — natural disasters, pandemics, geopolitical tensions and trade frictions — traditional savings have become less attractive, prompting further capital flows into alternative and safe-haven assets.
The structural change in banking funding is visible in the data: between 2019 and the third quarter of 2025, the share of customer deposits — the core funding channel — contracted noticeably. In 2020, customer deposits accounted for 80.5% of total funding; by Q3 2025 that share had fallen to 69.8%.
According to the half-year 2025 reviewed financial statements of Agribank, preferential lending packages account for roughly 20% of total outstanding loans — equivalent to nearly VND 400 trillion. These programmes target production and export sectors, green and circular agriculture, mortgage lending for borrowers under 35, and social-housing loans implemented under government direction. Rates on those packages are set below market levels by between 0.5 and 2 percentage points. Separately, policy lending at an annual rate of 4% to priority sectors — directed by the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam — is maintained by Agribank at about VND 20 trillion per year. Aside from the specialised policy bank, Agribank remains the only commercial bank executing such large-scale concessional programmes.
The Government has set an ambitious minimum GDP growth target of 10% for 2026, implying a nominal GDP that could exceed USD 520 billion. FiinGroup estimates that meeting this target would require maintaining gross capital formation above 30% of GDP — roughly USD 170–175 billion in 2026. Regulators are therefore seeking to unlock medium- and long-term financing channels outside the banking system to relieve pressure on bank balance sheets and safeguard macro-financial stability. Yet many experts caution that lowering the share of bank credit in GDP cannot be achieved overnight. Consequently, narrowing the gap between mobilisation and lending and strengthening core capital at major banks remain urgent priorities to ensure system safety.
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https://vneconomy.vn/ngan-hang-da-muc-tieu-chat-vat-xoay-xo-nguon-von.htm
Article 3
Gold Speculative Activity Needs Time to Cool Off
Gold’s role as a safe-haven asset remains unchanged, but according to experts at UOB Bank, the market needs time for speculative activity to subside, allowing prices to gradually stabilize and establish a new baseline. In its newly released gold price outlook report, UOB stated that although short-term volatility is unusually high, gold continues to be a familiar safe-haven asset for key investor groups. In addition, the precious metal serves as a tool for large investors to diversify their portfolios. Institutional investors need to increase gold allocations to offset rising risks to the US dollar amid growing concerns about de-dollarization trends and the potential depreciation of the currency. Unpredictable geopolitical developments and mounting global fiscal burdens further reinforce gold’s role as a safe-haven asset.
According to Heng Koon How, Head of Market Strategy in UOB’s Global Economics and Markets Research division, central banks worldwide—especially in emerging markets and Asia—will continue increasing their gold allocations. “Global central banks are expected to remain large net buyers of gold and will play a key role as an important source of demand in the market. They even welcome the recent correction in gold prices, as it opens favorable opportunities to increase allocations,” Heng said.
UOB experts forecast that global gold prices in the first quarter of this year will hover around USD 4,800 per ounce, up USD 400 from their own forecast a month earlier. In the second and third quarters, the precious metal is expected to rise to USD 5,000 and USD 5,200, before trading around USD 5,400 in the final three months of the year. According to the experts, despite a positive long-term outlook, gold prices may still face short-term selling pressure from “exhausted” investors who bought at high levels. Therefore, the market needs more time for speculative activity to cool, helping prices gradually stabilize and form a new equilibrium.
Since the beginning of the year, the global precious metals market has experienced its most volatile period in history. At the start of the year, gold traded around USD 4,300 per ounce, then rose steadily and surpassed USD 5,600 on January 28. However, the rally did not last long after news that President Donald Trump announced a nominee for Federal Reserve Chair triggered a wave of profit-taking. Gold recorded its sharpest single-session drop in 43 years, breaking through multiple psychological support levels and at one point falling close to USD 4,700—about 20% below its peak.
Domestic gold prices have moved in line with global trends. At the end of January, each tael of gold bars hit a record VND 191.3 million. Jewelry retailers faced shortages as demand outpaced supply. A few days later, following the global decline, domestic gold fell to around VND 163–166 million per tael. By the end of February 9, domestic gold was trading at around VND 181 million per tael, about VND 24 million higher than the global price after conversion, excluding taxes and fees. UOB is a Singaporean bank with offices and branches in 19 countries. It entered Vietnam in 1993 and currently has charter capital of VND 10 trillion, the second largest among wholly foreign-owned banks. Three years ago, it acquired Citibank Vietnam’s retail banking business.
SJC gold bars traded around VND 181 million per tael on February 9, 2026.
Source: Phương Đông
(https://vnexpress.net/chuyen-gia-can-thoi-gian-de-hoat-dong-dau-co-vang-lang-xuong-5039363.html)