NEWS 1
Abundant Funding, $200 Billion Exchange Stands on the Cusp of a Historic Boost
Approximately VND 2.6 quadrillion has been injected into the economy, a figure that could climb even higher by the year-end and into 2026. This is poised to be a major catalyst for the stock market, which has a scale exceeding $200 billion.
Strong Monetary Injection in 2025
The year 2025 has witnessed one of the most powerful credit injection waves in the history of the banking sector. As of November 27, 2025, the outstanding credit balance across the entire economy reached over VND 18.2 quadrillion, marking a 16.56% increase compared to the end of 2024. This figure not only far surpasses the 11.47% growth recorded in the same period last year but is also higher than the full-year growth of 2024 (15.09%).
In converted terms, during the first 11 months of 2025 alone, the banking system net-injected approximately VND 2.6 quadrillion into the economy - equivalent to about $98 billion at the current exchange rate. This is the strongest credit growth in at least the past 10 years.
At the regular Government press conference for November, held on the afternoon of December 6, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), Pham Thanh Ha, emphasized that despite the global economy facing many unpredictable changes, from geopolitical tensions and increased protectionism to climate change, the SBV has managed monetary policy proactively, flexibly, and synchronously. As a result, 11-month inflation was only 3.29% (significantly lower than the 4.5-5% target), core inflation was 3.21%, while 9-month GDP growth reached 7.85% and maintained its high momentum until the year-end.
In practice, banking system liquidity has been abundant for most of the year, lending rates are trending down, and the exchange rate remains relatively stable. This provides a platform for the SBV to accelerate credit growth without creating significant pressure on inflation.
Currently, banks are intensifying capital mobilization to serve lending activities for the economy. Public investment also made a breakthrough in 2025, with many ministries and localities disbursing 80-90% of their annual plans.
The SBV has also prepared scenarios for 2026, aiming for flexible management of monetary policy tools and close coordination with fiscal policy to maintain low-interest rates and ensure abundant liquidity to support double-digit economic growth in 2026. This implies a new monetary injection phase, potentially as robust as in 2025, which is highly likely to occur in 2026. This is regarded as a key driving force for the stock market.
Over $200 Billion Stock Market Awaiting a Historic Boost
With large amounts of capital continuously being released into the economy, the Vietnam Stock Market (VSE), with a market capitalization exceeding $200 billion, stands before an opportunity for explosive growth in 2026.
Firstly, the macroeconomic fundamentals are relatively favorable. The orientation is for high credit growth, between 15-20%; interest rates are maintained at low levels; public investment disbursement continues to be a major driver; and exports and domestic consumption are recovering strongly.
Major private corporations such as Vingroup (VIC), Hoa Phat (HPG), Masan (MSN), VietJet (VJC), Gelex (GEX), Vinhomes (VHM), Techcombank (TCB), VPBank (VPB)... are all direct beneficiaries of policies supporting private enterprises and preferential credit. These were the very pillars that drove the strong increase of the VN-Index between April and October.
Secondly, the prospect of the VSE being officially upgraded by FTSE to the Emerging Market group in 2026 is becoming increasingly clear. If successful, foreign capital flows could reach $2-4 billion within 6-12 months after the upgrade, as forecasted by some institutions, similar to what occurred with Kuwait (2020) or Saudi Arabia (2019). This would be an extremely powerful boost for liquidity and the valuation of Vietnamese stocks.
However, in the short term, the market may still face adjustment pressure. As of the end of last week (December 6), the VN-Index had increased for four consecutive weeks, closing at 1,741.32 points—only about 3% away from its historic peak. The VN30 group saw the strongest increase, while the midcap and smallcap groups are still far from their peaks, by 10-30%. Although liquidity has improved, it remains modest at VND 26,000-28,000 billion/session, which is not commensurate with the index's upward momentum.
Many securities companies concur that the VN-Index is encountering a strong resistance zone at 1,760-1,770 points, and fluctuations and consolidation may appear in December 2025 and Q1 2026. However, the medium- and long-term trend remains upward, as the issues of VND liquidity and interbank interest rates have been timely addressed by the SBV (raising the OMO interest rate to 4.5%, selling USD forwards).
According to CSI Securities, at the moment, the VN-Index is approaching the resistance area around the 1,760 mark and shows signs of increasing selling pressure in this zone, unable to break through yet. It is possible that the VN-Index will see a correction after four weeks of gains, revisiting the support zone around the 1,720 mark before resuming a positive upward trend.
According to Pinetree Securities, the stock market has fully reflected all bad news and formed a medium-term bottom in the 1,580-point area on November 10. From here, the upward trend will continue, whether sooner or later.
When the new capital from 2026 credit and foreign capital from the market upgrade pour in simultaneously, the VN-Index has the opportunity to surpass its historic peak and reach the 2,000-point mark right in 2026, as predicted by many organizations and experts.
Evidently, following the VND 2.6 quadrillion injection in 2025, a new monetary injection in 2026, coupled with the upgrade expectation, will create a historic boost for the Vietnamese stock market. This is the moment when long-term investors can confidently disburse capital into leading industry companies and anticipate the major trend ahead.
By 10:15 AM on December 8, the VN-Index increased by nearly 17 points (+1%) to 1,758 points. The strong surge in the VN-Index was largely driven by Vingroup (VIC) stock hitting the ceiling for the second consecutive session, adding VND 9,900 to VND 152,700/share, equivalent to approximately VND 305,000/share if not split according to the 1:1 ratio.
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NEWS 2
Gold’s frenzied rally ends with the biggest sell-off in more than a decade.
Gold coins were displayed at the jewelry shop of Axel Harbaum-Neuhaus in Bonn, Germany, on Tuesday, as gold prices surged and many people brought in their gold items to trade.
Gold prices edged slightly higher on Wednesday after the precious metal’s spectacular rally abruptly came to an end on Tuesday, when prices fell by more than 5%.
The plunge in gold prices — long regarded as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty — came as investors took profits following a record-breaking run, amid expectations that U.S. and Chinese officials would meet again for a new round of trade talks.
At 1:46 a.m. ET on Wednesday, spot gold was trading at $4,141.48 an ounce, up less than 0.4%.
On Tuesday, spot gold tumbled as much as 6.3% to $4,082.03 an ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $4,381.21 on Monday. U.S. gold futures settled down 5.7% at $4,087.70, marking the steepest percentage decline since April 2013. Silver and platinum also fell sharply on Tuesday, losing 7% and 5% respectively.
Analysts said the sell-off followed weeks of heavy buying that had pushed gold prices into overbought territory.
Gold has posted historic gains in 2025, rising more than 50%, surpassing previous periods of turmoil such as the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis, and even the Covid-19 pandemic.
Over the past two months alone, gold prices have surged 25%, driven by rising demand amid growing U.S. government debt, political uncertainty, and speculation that the Federal Reserve may continue cutting interest rates.
However, optimism over easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, along with a rebound in the U.S. dollar, prompted investors to lock in profits. Despite renewed friction between the world’s two largest economies in recent weeks, their trade representatives are expected to meet this weekend ahead of a planned meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump next week.
“I think we can make a very fair deal with President Xi of China,” Trump said on Monday. “I think we’re going to have something very good.”
Analysts also noted that the Diwali festival in India, the world’s second-largest consumer of gold, has ended, leading to weaker physical demand — another factor weighing on gold prices.
Bitcoin price year-to-date (Image: CoinMarketCap)
Source: John Liu
(https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/22/investing/gold-prices-plunge-intl-hnk)